Brexit vote cheat sheet: 3 potential outcomes and GBP/USD reactions

UK economic growth remained subdued in the quarter to January

UK economic growth remained subdued in the quarter to January

UK Prime Minister Theresa May made a last-minute trip to Strasbourg on Monday night where she negotiated legally binding changes to the Brexit agreement that will be voted on by British MPs tonight.

May is hoping her revised Brexit deal will be voted through by parliament after her crushing defeat by 230 votes in January.

"The choice is clear: it is this deal, or Brexit may not happen at all".

But May's entreaty fell on deaf ears among lawmakers whose support she needs.

This means UK Prime Minister Theresa May is even less likely to win Parliament's approval for her Brexit deal with the European Union this evening.

However, many pro-Brexit Tories and the Irish DUP - which props up the coalition government - said the changes did not go far enough and that they would vote against the deal.

British Prime Minister had declared that she has secured the breakthrough which was required to get her the Brexit withdrawal agreement through a crunch vote in Parliament today evening.

"We owe it to the country to provide them with a government that can govern", he said.

Late last night, May and her Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay secured a new agreement with European Union chief Jean-Claude Juncker, which included ensuring that there will be "no indefinite backstop" - the key sticking point for many hard-line Brexiteers.

But the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier said in a statement to French news agency AFP that he thought the time had come for May to focus on coming to an agreement with United Kingdom lawmakers rather than European ones. The UK could challenge the European Union in court if it tried to do so and, if successful, suspend the backstop.

Unemployment rate drops to 3.8% as 20000 jobs added in February
The unemployment rate fell 0.2 percent to 3.8 percent, the lowest level since October 2018 (and before that, April 2000). Temporary help employment was up 2.2% y/y, with monthly job gains averaging approximately 5,600 over the past 12 months.

David Davis told talkRADIO's Julia Hartley-Brewer: "It all hinges on what Geoffrey Cox says in his legal advice".

Meanwhile, in a sharp warning to the Britain MPs over the importance of the parliamentary vote today, Juncker had said, "In politics, sometimes you get a second chance".

Earlier, Brexiteers seized on new legal advice from the Attorney General Geoffrey Cox, which confirmed that Britain could still be trapped in the arrangement for years after it had formally left the 28-nation bloc.

EU Parliament President Antonio Tajani said the problems raised by the attorney general are "an internal problem of the U.K." and would not prompt the EU to reconsider the Brexit deal again.

"It's time that we have a general election and the people can choose who their government should be".

It is nearly certain that an unchanged withdrawal agreement would be defeated in the Commons, with a large eurosceptic faction of the Conservative party itself and the Demo¬cratic Unionist Party, which props up May's minority government, all set to say nay.

And he warned Tory MPs who plan to vote against the deal that it could mean Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister.

The pound, which had risen on hopes the deal would be passed, slumped by more than 1 per cent against the dollar after Cox's assessment, to trade at $1.3108.

German EU affairs minister Michael Roth, called it "a far-reaching compromise".

He added: "Our approach remains the same: we're very clear that the withdrawal agreement can't change in terms of text, but we also want to try and be helpful in terms of providing the clarity and reassurance needed in Westminister".

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